NFL Week 15

naturalborn103 · Post by **naturalborn103** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:28 pm

Let us all be real. Only game that we care about is

VS.

Pats -6

peanut butter · Post by **peanut butter** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 12:33 pm

ric · Post by **ric** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 6:49 pm

to reason for actually going through the cognitive dissonance without having a heart attack and choking someone to death (and then mapping it out game by game haha)

@ naturalborn
pretty much the only game anyone cares about is (below). its not even about the pats offense vs broncos defense to me. i want to see if and how belichick attempts to contain tebow. i didnt know he grew up navy until the nfl network hoodie documentary piece. the bears did a good job until the broncos let him loose and tebow went into god mode and mistakes and 60 yard field goals were made.

like reason and others have pointed out, what hes good at doing, he is incredibly good at doing it. i am hoping they will run some flexbone to keep hoodie on his heels

v.

Reason · Post by **Reason** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 7:00 pm

naturalborn103 · Post by **naturalborn103** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:13 pm

ric wrote: i want to see if and how belichick attempts to contain tebow.

Every team besides Vikings have contained Tebow.

Since Week 7, opponents have rushed five or more defenders on 40 percent of Tebow's dropbacks during the first three quarters. During the fourth quarter and overtime, opponents have rushed five or more on only 28 percent of his dropbacks. The disparity of 11.6 percentage points is the largest in the league, meaning that no team has seen a larger change in an opponentגs defensive philosophy from the early stages of the game to crunch time.

Meaning only time Tebow does work is when teams go into prevent.

alpha · Post by **alpha** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:40 pm

naturalborn103 wrote:
ric wrote: i want to see if and how belichick attempts to contain tebow.
Every team besides Vikings have contained Tebow.

Since Week 7, opponents have rushed five or more defenders on 40 percent of Tebow's dropbacks during the first three quarters. During the fourth quarter and overtime, opponents have rushed five or more on only 28 percent of his dropbacks. The disparity of 11.6 percentage points is the largest in the league, meaning that no team has seen a larger change in an opponentגs defensive philosophy from the early stages of the game to crunch time.
Meaning only time Tebow does work is when teams go into prevent.

wait....maybe you didn't see this. maybe you're trying to ignore the obvious. <object width="560" height="315"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/zMK9FKMG3Nc?ve ... ram><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/zMK9FKMG3Nc?version=3&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="315" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object>

Reason · Post by **Reason** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:06 pm

naturalborn103 wrote:
ric wrote: i want to see if and how belichick attempts to contain tebow.
Every team besides Vikings have contained Tebow.

Since Week 7, opponents have rushed five or more defenders on 40 percent of Tebow's dropbacks during the first three quarters. During the fourth quarter and overtime, opponents have rushed five or more on only 28 percent of his dropbacks. The disparity of 11.6 percentage points is the largest in the league, meaning that no team has seen a larger change in an opponentגs defensive philosophy from the early stages of the game to crunch time.
Meaning only time Tebow does work is when teams go into prevent.

fuck it i'll be devil's advocate:

don't you think if teams are going to play more people in the secondary that tebow's interception/deflection/interceptible passes should also go up? but they don't. still not going to give him any credit though, right?

naturalborn103 · Post by **naturalborn103** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:20 pm

Reason wrote:
naturalborn103 wrote:
ric wrote: i want to see if and how belichick attempts to contain tebow.
Every team besides Vikings have contained Tebow.

Since Week 7, opponents have rushed five or more defenders on 40 percent of Tebow's dropbacks during the first three quarters. During the fourth quarter and overtime, opponents have rushed five or more on only 28 percent of his dropbacks. The disparity of 11.6 percentage points is the largest in the league, meaning that no team has seen a larger change in an opponentגs defensive philosophy from the early stages of the game to crunch time.
Meaning only time Tebow does work is when teams go into prevent.
fuck it i'll be devil's advocate:

don't you think if teams are going to play more people in the secondary that tebow's interception/deflection/interceptible passes should also go up? but they don't. still not going to give him any credit though, right?

Not when they are giving him wide open underneath passes. Most these game winning drives are not long ones or huge plays, just taking what defense is easily giving him. Also giving him much more room to run and create extra time. Prevent defense sucks.

ric · Post by **ric** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:35 pm

this is going to be a little long, just fyi.

@naturalborn
1) i dont think teams do go into "prevent d" where they let anything short-medium go. thats not what happened with the bears, at least.
2) i think teams fear things like the verticals package. which the vikes got killed on, and obviously opens up the field in general. so what?
3) are you saying a teams fear of such packages is unfounded simply because tebow is under center? tell that to the vikings. tell that to the bears as well. tell that to the chiefs. it may be ugly. tebow may throw some ducks. so what?
4) if by "contain" you mean "stop" i dont think so. i dont think the broncos regular offense is efficient at moving the ball but i dont think that means other teams are necessarily stopping them when they open up the offense at the end of games (as reason has pointed out). remember, if demaryius thomas doesnt drop that 3rd qtr (?) touchdown catch, were probably not even talking about 4th qtr miracles or OT fumbles in the bears game.
5) the lions put up 45 and held the broncos to 10 on the first game where they were figuring out how to use tebow. i dont think the broncos wouldve gotten anywhere near 45, period, with or without tebow. i havent seen that game, but the lions got 312 yards. the broncos got 376. the lions have a beast front 4. mcgahee was out. sure the lions d played well against that.
6) the raiders game looks like an option fest. broncos put up 38. tebow passes for 120 yds under 50%. mcgahee and tebow combine for almost 300 yards rushing against a team who was up to that point (correct me if im wrong) a mid-level rush d with some nice personnel.
7) the chiefs game looks like an experiment with the run game because why even bother? its the chiefs. 8 pass attempts. 8. no real need to the whole game, either.
8) in the nyj game you saw what happened. they spread the field and tebow pretty much single handedly went 90 yards. that and a great move from eddie royal which potentially saved the game and got some yards.
9) san diego. another option fest against a fairly weak d. no tebow interceptions.
10) vikings. demaryius finally shows up (some of us have been waiting). they open up the offense against a good run d. they still put up 150 on them, and mcgahee rips a 50+ yarder on what may have been a designed run or may have been an option read. but thats what you get when you keep teams off balance. either way, tebows qb play is laudable and visibly improved, if limited.
11) the bears play spy and contain. the bears front 7 personnel includes: brian urlacher, lance briggs, julius peppers, isreal adonijae(?sp). bears d plays well. demaryius drops a gaurantee, and adonijae blocks a field goal. obviously, everyone is focused on the marion barber problems. but god has spoken, so what can you do?

ric · Post by **ric** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:01 pm

the key to the patriots game may be to let the boy out of the box. spread the field and let him throw and let him operate. they may have to, and i dont think tebow would do poorly at all. lets not forget, the pats d may give yards but they are still up there in ints despite a ton of injury problems.

the broncos wrs corps is not a healthy one. two young wrs who have promise but are still working on their game lead that unit. demaryius was injured all of last year. guy could beast out, though, and i think he is a legit number one wr down the road.

whats really going on is the broncos are challenging the common narrative about qbs, about mistakes, etc. tebow doesnt throw interceptions. he never really has. the d is playing out of their mind. if youre not going to put up points in bunches you have to give your d a rest. its still true that running the ball tires out the opposing d. edit: its still true that the option fucks with the d.

the whole reason why people are even paying attention to things like drops, fumbles, and blocked fgs is because they are starting to matter because these are the types of plays which make the difference in these kinds of bare-bones games. you can say they are "magnified" but they were never small in the first place. they only appeared small given the assumption that an offense has to put up 300 + 100 per game to stay competitive. the broncos are on their way to putting up 250 rush + 150 pass per game. the rest is time, defense, and mistakes. as it always has been.

heres a nice little stat for you. the broncos d are 25th in interceptions. do you or dont you think the offense would score more if they were, say, 10th in ints? (they have 9 ints, 10th puts them at almost double with 15)

edit: green bay is 1 with 27. the patriots? tied for 2/3 with 18. 10th place is one of the 4 teams with 15. 11th place has 14. 16th place has 13. thats almost 50% more just to be middle of the pack.

its true that things like ints are connected to the way the offense plays. but i dont think its by necessity that the 50% more ints the broncos would benefit from is solely because of how they structure the game plan around a conservative offense.

naturalborn103 · Post by **naturalborn103** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:02 pm

Ill go through a few of them

ric wrote:this is going to be a little long, just fyi.

@naturalborn
1) i dont think teams do go into "prevent d" where they let anything short-medium go. thats not what happened with the bears, at least.

Vs. Bears Tebow played good in 4th quarter, ill give him that, but nothing overly impressive IMO. Bears WERE giving him underneath stuff since they figured as long as they get onsides kick their RB wouldn't run out of bounds. Last drive was like 30 yards also since Barber fumble. Nothing too impressive

ric wrote:2) i think teams fear things like the verticals package. which the vikes got killed on, and obviously opens up the field in general. so what?

Viking probally have the worst secondary right now in all of football. I know you saw most of those big plays the CB let the WR go expecting help over the top and didnt get it. Those were some of the easiest passes ever.

ric wrote:3) are you saying a teams fear of such packages is unfounded simply because tebow is under center? tell that to the vikings. tell that to the bears as well. tell that to the chiefs. it may be ugly. tebow may throw some ducks. so what?

I am saying when you have been doing good on defense all game and then at last drive or two to switch it up to give them easy yards but supposed to force long drives is dumb. Play the D the way you have been playing all day. Prevent D vs. anyone is dumb. I understand you have to match up with their personal, but don't just rush 3. Also, like I said above, Vikings worst DBs in the league and left receiver WIDE open multiple times.

ric wrote:4) if by "contain" you mean "stop" i dont think so. i dont think the broncos regular offense is efficient at moving the ball but i dont think that means other teams are necessarily stopping them when they open up the offense at the end of games (as reason has pointed out). remember, if demaryius thomas doesnt drop that 3rd qtr (?) touchdown catch, were probably not even talking about 4th qtr miracles or OT fumbles in the bears game.

No team in the NFL is game planning to score 17 points or less every game. They are getting more aggressive in 4th when they have too, but I think the success they are having is more due to teams playing prevent as well as just dumb luck like players running out of bounds and short fields cause of TOs. He is getting contained and stopped through 3.5 quarters.

ric wrote:5) the lions put up 45 and held the broncos to 10 on the first game where they were figuring out how to use tebow. i dont think the broncos wouldve gotten anywhere near 45, period, with or without tebow. i havent seen that game, but the lions got 312 yards. the broncos got 376. the lions have a beast front 4. mcgahee was out. sure the lions d played well against that.

Let me tell you a general rule for looking at stats in NFL. NEVER be impressed by yardage totals from a team that gets killed in a game. Means nothing.

naturalborn103 · Post by **naturalborn103** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:10 pm

ric wrote: the whole reason why people are even paying attention to things like drops, fumbles, and blocked fgs is because they are starting to matter because these are the types of plays which make the difference in these kinds of bare-bones games.

They are starting to matter because it is a defensive game for Broncos. If you put anyone else at QB for Broncos they would be called game managers if they won by those scores and put up those #s, cause it is Tebow he is 'leading' them to wins.

ric wrote:heres a nice little stat for you. the broncos d is 25th in interceptions. do you or dont you think the offense would score more if they were, say, 10th in ints?

That is a random and weird thing to look at. New Orleans is tied for 28th in the league for ints and has 2nd most points in the league.

ric · Post by **ric** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:22 pm

@naturalborn
its not a random stat. the saints arent getting picks this year, but imagine if they were. the way that offense works? even more points! remember, in their superbowl year they were first in picks. the point is picks can only help an offense and lack of picks can only cap a defenses potential to help the offense. if the broncos were getting more picks, the offense would be scoring more. the avg point value would go up. the narrative about the offense would be different. etc

i dont think teams are just giving it up. i think you are dead wrong about this. point it out to me. at a glance miami seems like the only real candidate to be in a position to feel like doing this.

i agree that the tebow narrative is fucked up. but the fact is the broncos have gone 7-1 against nfl teams since they started running this kind of offense and this kind of offense helps the defense. its difficult for most/all teams to drive 80 yards every single time they have the ball. i think the common narrative reduces the game way too much in this sense. i think the narrative likes to make the move that 'successful nfl teams' hit certain benchmarks that most teams do not hit, that some successful teams do not hit, and that you HAVE to do certain things to win games (short term and long term) that you don't really have to do (nevermind that what long term success is in the nfl is mysterious and almost entirely elusive in the first place, and therefore whatever benchmark is used is certainly an unrealistic expectation).

however, i dont think the tebow narrative is entirely deficient. tebow has statistically played better in the 4th qtr. tebow "leads" them to some wins because, for example, he runs for 60 of 90 yards against a team bringing 8 guys to stop him because they are betting correctly that he is going to run first. and he still goes 25 yards on them because that whole team, let alone that (really good) safety is still thrown off his game playing against this style of offense. tebow has been playing in this style since he was a kid and nobody else on the team has ever played in this style (save for demaryius thomas, if i remember correctly, who is coming on). tebow is leading his team because he is politically leading his team in a way that few qbs do. orton wasnt. at any point. to my knowledge cutler wasnt leading shit until this year or the end of last year. if you dont buy this part of it, i think you are missing out on a big part of the game.

naturalborn103 · Post by **naturalborn103** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:58 pm

ric wrote:@naturalborn
its not a random stat. the saints arent getting picks this year, but imagine if they were. the way that offense works? even more points! remember, in their superbowl year they were first in picks. the point is picks can only help an offense and lack of picks can only cap a defenses potential to help the offense. if the broncos were getting more picks, the offense would be scoring more. the avg point value would go up. the narrative about the offense would be different. etc

There is no correlation between the two. Looking at offensive production and then just choosing int's as the thing that limits them or doesn't makes no sense. Denver D is getting stops and giving the offense the ball, that is all that matters.

On top of that I hope you realize that Tebows 3 OT wins he got short fields because of the defense. Two forced fumbles and a missed fg. And in the 7 wins Tebow has the defense has forced 10 TOs, got one onside kicks, and returned a punt for a TD. Please don't act like the defense is somehow holding him back from putting up points.

peanut butter · Post by **peanut butter** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 5:26 pm

PEACE

craig · Post by **craig** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 5:36 pm

So apparently Sam Hurd is a drug kingpin whose side job is playing football.

ric · Post by **ric** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 5:50 pm

@naturalborn
running a correlation misses the point and is really not prescribed here.
im simply pointing out that the broncos are missing it, and it would change the narrative. 10 tos is a nice replacement stat (they are a little better than middle of the pack in FF and Frecs) im not saying the d is holding him back. i am saying if they got more picks (something they are not good at) the narrative would be different. im pretty sure thats literally what i said. slow down and chill out.

naturalborn103 · Post by **naturalborn103** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 5:57 pm

Okay. Still makes no sense. ints do not correlate to more points for offense, so how would narrative change?

What does make sense to say is that narrative would be very different if defense was giving up more then 13 points a game. If that was happening right now we would be saying, 'remember that Tebow experiment? That was ugly, the guy can't throw a simple passes. Wonder if he will move to RB now.'

capable_keL · Post by **capable_keL** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:18 pm

will you guys knock this shit off, my head hurts

craig wrote:So apparently Sam Hurd is a drug kingpin whose side job is playing football.

it appears he was making more coin with the drugs. hurd is my hero

ric · Post by **ric** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:30 pm

@naturalborn
youre saying that the patriots last year - #1 pts/game, #8 (matt casselish) yards/game, #22 in plays from scrimmage - were not helped out offensively by being #1 in picks?

tell me what you think about this statement: aside from the lions game, in situations where theyve had to throw, and theyve elected to throw, tebow has thrown effectively

peanut butter · Post by **peanut butter** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:45 pm

yall royal caribbean cruisers just tebow'd the fuck outta this thread so hard its to the point that i finna just start following jai alai to avoid yall.

PEACE

Ramen · Post by **Ramen** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 7:23 pm

Wonder who Sam Hurd was slanging to, allegedly the feds have a list of NFL players.

craig · Post by **craig** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 8:50 pm

^^^^
Me too. That list is probably going to come to light sooner or later.

naturalborn103 · Post by **naturalborn103** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 10:08 pm

ric wrote:@naturalborn
youre saying that the patriots last year - #1 pts/game, #8 (matt casselish) yards/game, #22 in plays from scrimmage - were not helped out offensively by being #1 in picks?

No. You need to understand ints are caused by good offenses, not the other way around. Good offenses put the other team in obvious passing situations and more passing situations so with high scoring offenses ints usually follow.

ric wrote:tell me what you think about this statement: aside from the lions game, in situations where theyve had to throw, and theyve elected to throw, tebow has thrown effectively

No. He has literally the worst completion percentage in all of the NFL so I think it is safe to say he has been very ineffective.

capable_keL · Post by **capable_keL** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 10:40 pm

roddy & matthew ice

getting the fantasy money

blaine gabbert is fucking terrible

Prophecy · Post by **Prophecy** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 11:11 pm

capable_keL wrote:roddy & matthew ice

getting the fantasy money

blaine gabbert is fucking terrible

Cowering Faggot Horrid Quarterback

capable_keL · Post by **capable_keL** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 11:21 pm

nothing is as bad as blaine gabbert. he's a cross between cade mcnown and joey harrington with clay matthews hair and feminine features.

throws like a jawn

capable_keL · Post by **capable_keL** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 11:34 pm

Did the Packers untying Ndamukong Suhגs shoes set him off?

Was Ndamukong Suh's Thanksgiving outburst caused by a juvenile prank ordered by a Green Bay Packers coach? According to former Packers offensive lineman Matt Brock, that's exactly what happened.

Brock was being interviewed on KXTG in Portland, Ore., when he floated the theory that his former teammate, current offensive line coach James Campen, may have told Evan Dietrich-Smith to untie Ndamukong Suh's shoes during the game as a way of getting under the skin of the volatile Detroit Lions star.

This is the sort of tale that's best served straight from the horse's mouth, so here's a transcript of Brock's interview, courtesy MLive.com:

The center, or one of his guards, he's had like one or two starts in his career and he's got to play against Suh. So he's pretty puckered, right? So, he talking to James, the offensive line coach, going, "What do I do? What do I do?"

James is just in his mind going, "This guy is going to get killed. I got to take his mind off it, give him something else to do." So he says, "Ok, every time you're in a pile, I want you to focus on something. I want you to untie his shoes."

He goes, "What?"

"Anytime you can, just reach in, he's got floppy shoe laces, he doesn't spat or anything, just untie his shoes. It will irritate him."

He untied his shoes three times in the game. That's why he stomped him. That's why he banged his head on the ground and he stomped him. When (Suh) went to the sideline it looked like he was telling the coach, "I didn't do anything" and he put his foot up like, "I didn't stomp him. I didn't do anything." He was actually going, "The damn guy keeps untying my shoes."

That's a heck of a tale and it's just plausible enough to be true. Suh is so temperamental that you can see him getting aggravated by some scrub messing with his shoes. It's something that's easily checked, I suppose. All you'd have to do is go back and look at the game tape to see if Suh was bending over in between plays to tie his shoes.

Even if it's not true, I'd imagine Oakland Raiders coaches will be whispering to their offensive linemen about how to antagonize Suh during this Sunday's game. Sure, they could suggest they untie his shoes in a pile, but where's the originality in that? Come up with a new way to annoy him. Try tickling his feet or blowing gently in his ear or singing that Mariah Carey Christmas song at full volume all game. Dude will snap in no time.

that's right.. the whitest, gayest, and worst thing in the NFL (the yellow pack) caused Suh to be suspended. millions of obese pasteoid hicks are doing the discount double *check to country music

Kid That's Lifeless · Thu Dec 15, 2011 11:39 pm

Isn't it the Discount Double Check?

Don't answer that, I'll see myself out.

capable_keL · Post by **capable_keL** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 12:29 am

Kid That's Lifeless wrote:Isn't it the Discount Double Check?

Don't answer that, I'll see myself out.

yes.. editing post now.. thanks.. and fuck